Miami is having the kind of season that generally only happens when you turn the sliders on 2k down a little bit too far. The shots they need to fall are falling, the stops they need, they get, the rebounds that must be theirs are. UMass put them in trouble yesterday, then Frank Martin either drew up the worst play imaginable or his point guard suffered significant brain lock at the worst possible time. Smart money is on the latter, but it doesn’t really matter, because Miami escaped again.
That took the RedHawks to 21-0 on the season. No team in the nation gets more from their shot attempts than Coach Travis Steele’s boys. Their EFG is 60.3%. They are fourth in the nation in two point shooting, 18th in three point shooting, and 23rd in free throw shooting. They are also 169th in defense, but who really cares about that when it seems like every shot is going to go in?
The RedHawks are ranked, in 97 of 100 brackets on the Matrix, and the highest team in the MAC in the NET. They are the talk of sports stations that had to Google where Oxford is and they are doing all of this without Evan Ipsar, their starting point guard and best player. It has been a magical run.
It is also one loss away from being over. Miami is 53rd in the NET, one spot ahead of Akron. They have no Q1 wins, only three Q2 wins, and no chance to add to either of those in the regular season. Actually, they can’t add to either of those unless they play Akron in the MAC tournament. What is facing Miami is nothing but two months of potential pitfalls. All that are left are Q3 and Q4 games. Losing any of them will drop Miami below the NET cut line. Winning all of them won’t impress anyone because the MAC is really bad this year. (Won’t impress anyone in a vacuum. Winning them all and running the table would be very impressive.)
This is the issue with being a small mid-major. Coach Steele scheduled no one in the non-con. Wright State away was the big test. Everyone else was a Q4 with only at #229 UNC Asheville sneaking in as a Q3. Three more games were outside D1. That means that two thirds of Miami’s wins are Q4 and below. Steele has said many times that he simply couldn’t get anyone to play him, and that may well be true. Unfortunately, it may also derail a magical season.
The MAC hasn’t helped at all. Akron came to Miami, meaning that three point win was only a Q2. Miami went to Kent, but the Golden Flashes are having a rare very down year and that was only a Q3. Bowling Green is third in the MAC in the NET and they are 126th. The conference usually provides at least some decent games. It offered up two this year. Miami duly won them both and now just has to keep relentlessly winning. The only loss they could possibly afford would be to Akron in the MAC tournament, but otherwise we may be looking at the incredibly wild situation where a one loss team is on the wrong side of the bubble.
Looking at Miami they are either running out of steam as teams get closer and closer to beating them, or they are just making all the plays where teams usually stumble somewhere. Travis Steele has always seemed a very likable sort. He and his very likable team may need to be perfect to go dancing.
