Kevin Durant didn't sugarcoat it. After the Rockets held Victor Wembanyama to a rough 5-for-21 shooting night last week — including 3-for-18 on jumpers — KD offered some veteran wisdom disguised as postgame analysis.
“He’s still working on his jump shot. We made him shoot over us,” Durant said. “He’s more dangerous when he gets layups and dunks. That’s more his game than floating around the perimeter shooting 3s and jump shots. When they go in, it looks amazing. But when you put a hand up, he had a couple bad misses.”
Translation? Pull up all you want, big fella. We like our chances.
Wembanyama is already one of the best players in the world at age 22, and he’s not yet in his prime. But does KD have a point?
Wemby’s jumper a work in progress
Wemby is shooting a career-best 39.5% on midrange dribble-jumpers, but that ranks only 22nd of the 25 players to take at least 100 of them so far this season. It’s better than the 33.3% he posted last season and miles ahead of his rookie campaign's 26.8%. But it’s not efficient yet.
Then you look at his 3-point shooting off the dribble, and the trend reverses: 25% this year, down from 32.8% last season and 37.7% as a rookie.
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Combine all his pull-up attempts from both midrange and from 3, and he's shooting 34.5%, only a tick better than the 33% he posted in both prior seasons. This season, Wemby ranks 41st of the 46 players to take at least 150 of those shots. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is first (48.2%) and Durant is decimal points behind at 47.8%.
Wemby just turned 22. He’s the same age as a college senior. He can’t rent a car without paying extra. He’s not a finished product. The pull-up numbers have plateaued, sure. But he is much more fluid getting into his shots. Three years ago he looked like a baby deer learning to dribble. Now he’s crossing guys over while also turning the ball over less than he ever has. And he’s generating more of his own shots as a result: dribble-jumpers make up 31% of his total shots, up from the 25% in his first two seasons. That number was only 18% during his final year with the Metropolitans 92 before being drafted first overall in 2023.
By the time Wemby is in his prime, maybe all these reps as a shot creator will pay off. After all, he does have touch. Wembanyama has made 81.6% of his free throws in his career, and his catch-and-shoot 3-point success has risen each season. This year, he’s making a blistering 44.7% of those 3s — up from 37% last year and 29% as a rookie. That’s excellent progress, and adds to the belief that someday it’ll translate off the dribble.
The problem today? Wemby is taking only 3.2 of those 3s off the catch this season — slightly less than half of what he attempted last year. No matter how good you are, you still gotta take the easy ones. That’s true behind the arc. It’s true at the rim too.
Is Wemby ‘floating around the perimeter’ too much?
When Wembanyama gets to the restricted area, he's automatic. He makes 76% of unassisted at-rim shots, which includes self-created drives from the perimeter, post-ups, isolations, or when he handles in transition. And he makes 87% of at-rim shots when the ball is passed to him, which includes lobs, cuts, rolls, and other assist opportunities. Both are elite numbers. Combined, he’s the best in the league: Among 102 players with at least 100 total attempts in the restricted area this season, he leads the whole NBA at 82%. Even better than Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But Wemby takes only 3.5 shots per game in the restricted area, which ranks 51st of the same group of 102 players. Norm Powell takes more (3.7). Marvin Bagley takes more (3.9). Lauri Markkanen — a stretch big who lives beyond the arc — takes 5.1 per game. Giannis leads with 8.1 per game. Should that number be higher for Wemby?
Well, when Giannis was 22 he was taking only 5.5 restricted area shots per game and he didn’t have the jumper that Wemby does. It wasn't until Antetokounmpo’s first MVP season in 2018-19, at age 24 and entering his physical prime, that he exceeded eight at-rim shots per game. Wemby is still young, adding strength, and already has more layers to his offense than Giannis has ever had.
When I interviewed Wembanyama following his rookie season, I asked who the players were that he studied most while growing up. KD and Giannis were fittingly the two players mentioned. Turns out, he’s statistically already in the same stratosphere as The Greek Freak at the rim. And the French Freak is putting defenders on posters too. But does Wemby need Durant to sit him down and show him the perimeter math?
Not exactly. Because here's the thing: Wemby is a shape-shifter. His shot distribution swings wildly depending on who’s next to him. The pattern is clean: When Wemby shares the floor with a backcourt of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper — San Antonio's two young guards — he takes 34.1% of his shots at the rim. With just Castle? 28.5%. Just Harper? 22.7%. Now add De'Aaron Fox. Fox and Castle together: 18.0%. Fox and Harper: 15.8%. Fox alone: 15.6%.
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Wemby's at-rim rate literally cuts in half when Fox is on the floor. Instead, Wemby takes a lot of 3s. Two-thirds of his catch-and-shoot 3s have come when he shares the floor with Fox. Wemby will often stand out on the perimeter to make space for Fox to do what he does best as an All-Star guard with a downhill style. Meanwhile, Castle and Harper get out of Wembanyama’s way by spacing behind the 3-point line, or they look for him on his rolls to the rim with more regularity.
Wemby’s distribution of dribble jumpers and all self-created chances is constant, regardless of the lineup combo. What changes is how he serves as a finisher. So Durant isn't necessarily wrong about Wemby’s affinity for creating his own jumpers. But the data suggests his at-rim frequency is less about Wemby's choice and more the Fox Effect.
And the team is no worse for it. No matter the combination of guards, Wemby’s shooting efficiency stays nearly equivalent and every group dominates offensively.
At least in the regular season. Fox doesn’t feel like he’s stepping on Wemby’s toes now. But will that change come playoff time? Castle and Harper have some of the worst “gravity” numbers in the league — a new metric released by the NBA that measures how much defensive attention a player commands. Defenses don’t respect their ability to score, and why would they? They’re young and inefficient. But in a January game, who cares? Nobody’s game-planning that hard yet. The question is what happens in April or May when Oklahoma City or Denver or even Houston have three days to prep. At that time, will the lack of knockdown shooting around Wembanyama become an issue?
Wemby, because he’s a genius and an athletic freak and apparently incapable of being bad at anything, will probably find a way. It’s on the Spurs to optimize the groups around him as he continues to “float around” outside and work on his shooting off the bounce.
If Wembanyama becomes anywhere near as dominant in the creation category as he is in every other, Durant’s game plan won't work anymore. Because right now, Wemby is in his third year and already a game-wrecker on defense who, on offense, leads the league in rim efficiency at 82%, shoots 45% on catch-and-shoot 3s, and contorts his entire offensive game to fit whoever’s standing next to him.
All while "still working on his jump shot." What happens when he figures it out?
