Sunday’s AFC Championship matchup vs. the Denver Broncos marked the third straight game against a top-eight defense in terms of EPA for Drake Maye and the Patriots offense.
As was the case in the previous two duels with the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, they struggled to move the football scoring just 10 points.
Ultimately the 10 points were enough to win the game and send the Patriots to Super Bowl LX. But, New England is averaging the fewest points (18.0) by any team to reach the big dance since 1979 Rams.
While their have been factors such as the opposing defensive talent, poor weather conditions in all three games, and perhaps a lingering shoulder injury for Maye, the Patriots know they will need better against a No. 1 ranked Seahawks’ defense if they hope to hoist the Lombardi Trophy
“I think it all goes into it,” head coach Mike Vrabel said. “Just the defenses in general, not just the pass rush. And, again, a lot of that stuff is, we’ll have to be better. We’ll have to be better. We’ll have to play one of our best games, if not our best game, against Seattle to stay balanced, to run the football, to use all our complementary passing game and not just turn it into a drop-back passing game.”
As for Sunday in Denver, Maye struggled to move the football through the air even before conditions became unplayable in the second-half. Maye did not look to always play in rhythm as he finished the day 10-for-21 and missed several open receivers — including a pair of uncharacteristic misfires to Kayshon Boutte — to end with just 86 yards and -0.32 EPA per drop-back.
But in another low-scoring defensive battle, Maye made his usual handful of splash plays — particularly with his legs — to punch the Patriots ticket in the Super Bowl.
Here’s how he did so in the AFC Championship Game.
Drive 4
(8:36) (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to M.Hollins to NE 31 for 20 yards (T.Hufanga). For the first time this season, the Patriots’ first three drives ended with punts. They did not move the chains until the second quarter, where Maye overcame a 3rd-and-13 backed up in his own territory with one of his best throws of the day. Running a dagger concept to his right, Maye looks off to his left to move the safety before coming back right to find Mack Hollins on the deep dig — with the ball slightly behind his target to protect him from that safety ranging back to the ball.
The 20-yard gain was one of New England’s biggest plays of the day and got them out from their own end zone. While they ultimately punted four plays later, the chunk gain helped flip the field and set up their first touchdown of the game after a Jarrett Stidham fumbled the following possession.
Drive 5
(2:14) (Shotgun) D.Maye right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. That touchdown came on the ground, as the Patritos dial up a QB draw on second-down. With the spread formation widening the defense, the seas part up the middle and Garrett Bradbury and Rhamondre Stevenson take care of the second-level defenders. Maye is able to walk into the end zone untouched to get New England on the board.
Drive 8
(10:22) (Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles up the middle ran ob at DEN 17 for 28 yards (T.Hufanga). With snow starting to come down in the second-half, Josh McDaniels opened things up on the ground behind plenty of jumbo personnel. That led to a 16-play drive that gained 64 yards and chewed up 9:31 off the play clock — where Maye’s biggest play again came on the ground.
Facing a 3rd-and-9 just over midfield following six straight runs, Maye steps up through the pocket and takes off for a 28-yard gain with no defender accounted for the QB. While the drive ultimately stalled inside the 10-yard line, the explosive run helped set up a short field goal for Andy Borregales that proved to be the game winner.
Drive 9
(2:25) T.Munford reported in as eligible. D.Maye pass deep left to M.Hollins pushed ob at DEN 31 for 31 yards (R.Moss). After a quick Broncos three-and-out, Maye picked up another first-down with his legs before finding his lone deep completion with his best pass of the game. Even with the conditions worsening, a flea flicker frees up Mack Hollins running downfield and Maye absolutely drops one in the bucket to the receiver in stride for a 31-yard gain. Also credit to Rhamondre Stevenson on a wonderful play in pass protection.
Drive 13
(1:57) T.Munford reported in as eligible. D.Maye left end pushed ob at NE 48 for 7 yards (J.Elliss). In their four-minute offense, New England needs just one first-down to secure their spot in the Super Bowl. Running the same stretch run play on first- and second-down to Rhamondre Stevenson kills the two-minute warning and Denver’s final timeout, but finds the Patriots in a 3rd-and-5.
With the same run concept dialed up, Josh McDaniels and Maye decide to instead call the quarterback’s own number (to his teammates surprise) and pull the ball on a naked bootleg. As the Broncos leave the backside open again, Maye is able to get the edge and reach for the first-down to end the game.
“We were in big personnel running the same deal to the right, little stretch play,” Maye explained post-game. “At some point they get lackadaisical and you got a chance to get around the edge. I thought he was going to track me and hawk me down but we got enough to pick up the first. Coach [Mike Vrabel] would probably get mad about running out of bounds but at that point it doesn’t matter when you get the first down.
“That was a cool moment and cool to celebrate with those guys. It’s always cool finish in victory formation. It’s pretty sweet.”
