By Dele Sobowale
Words of wisdom ring true for ages. The United States of America is neck-deep in debt; and most of its economic leaders-of-thought are convinced that it is only a matter of time before the bubble bursts and a full-blown recession will follow.
Nigerian governments, since 2004, after we secured debt relief, have returned to perpetual borrowing, without any discernible means of repayment, to finance government budgets. The change from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to the All Progressives Congress, APC has been marked by the acceleration in public debt accumulation. Eight years of the Buhari government took the country to N92 trillion; two and a half years of the current government has added N60 trillion. By the second quarter of 2025, the debt burden had risen to N152 trillion; and there were already plans to borrow more.
Ordinarily, there should have been no cause for alarm if the funds were invested in self-liquidating ventures. What is concerning is the fact that the debts are being incurred, first, to pay for consumption; and two, for debt servicing. In 2026, Nigeria has found herself in the embarrassing situation of actually budgeting to spend its entire revenue on just salaries and debt-servicing.
Causes and curse
“FG writes off $1.42bn, N5.57tn NNPC debt.” Report, December 29, 2025.
NNPC subsidiaries’ debt balloons 70% to N30tn.” January 5, 2026.
If “a picture is worth a thousand words”, then a concise report saves the commentator the labour of having to find the right words to describe a great national economic tragedy. The two reports, separated by one week, summarise, as nothing else can, how the Nigerian curse of oil remains with us. Of all the major oil producing nations in the world, Nigeria is the only one classified as poor; and whose citizens have steadily been drowning in national debt and worsening poverty.
To the best of my knowledge, no other oil producing nation has had to bail its national oil company out of debt. On the contrary, all the other oil companies help pay their national debts and, additionally, enrich their citizens. Why is Nigeria different?
The short answer is: massive and relentless corruption by all the staff of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, now Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL. What’s in a name if the corporate culture is akin to a den of robbers?
But, that only addresses the frequent symptoms of the same virulent epidemic – which refuses to go away. There is a fundamental reason for our predicament.
“Every country has the government it deserves” – Joseph de Maistre, 1753-1821.
All the governments, since 1993 had failed the nation; and that is because, Nigerians are not in control of their country. From Abacha till now, no government has tackled corruption at the NNPC, like other oil-producing nations, thereby conferring immunity on perpetrators of economic sabotage at the organization. A poor Nigerian, stealing a tuber of yam, if he escapes jungle justice, will be penalized by a Magistrate. A Group Managing Director, GMD, of NNPC(L) who collects $2.3 billion for TAM – which is not conducted – will walk away free; particularly, if he carries the right party card.
Take the Turn Around Maintenance, TAM, perpetual grand larceny. The last time TAMs were undertaken as required was under the Babangida regime – which ended in 1993. Since then, all the successive governments, after IBB, had allocated funds for TAMs which were never carried out. The last one occurred in 2023; and all the directors involved are still walking about free. Shortly after declaring an end to oil subsidy and provoking fuel prices reaching up to N1,200 per litre in many parts of the country, President Tinubu was easily persuaded to fall for the same old trick by the Board of Directors and the GMD-NNPCL that the best option to quickly bring down fuel prices was to pay for another TAM. Unrealistic deadlines were set for when the old refineries would start supplying fuel. Along the way, the FG was told that the Portharcourt and Warri refineries had started to produce and supply fuel. It was a hoax; which lasted until April 2025 – when Tinubu finally realized that Nigerians had been duped once again by NNPCL.
Laws grind the poor, and rich men rule the law.” Oliver Goldsmith, 1728-1774
That is true everywhere; but, it is worse in Nigeria and NNPCL. Sacking the top managers of NNPCL has had some salutary effect on the operations of the organization; but not enough. To the best of my knowledge, no top official of the NNPC(L) has ever been prosecuted and convicted in Nigeria; despite the open secret about relentless pillage of the company. Buhari, on July 23, 2015, accused some former Ministers and top government officials of the Jonathan administration of selling up to one million barrels of stolen crude a day; citing documents at his disposal. Nobody was jailed in eight years. The conviction of two former NNPCL officials took place in the US, the richest country, last year, where they had transferred funds stolen in Nigeria – a poor African country. America is doing the dirty but necessary job for us of penalizing corrupt Nigerians caught there. That should tell us something.
We either “kill” corruption in NNPCL or it will kill us
“Neglect a fire and it will overpower thee.” Alexander Solzhenitsyn.
Monumental corruption, endemic in the management of NNPCL – till now – is one wild fire that Nigerian governments had allowed to go unchecked for too long. Nigeria is being gradually over-powered by corruption in the organization which is primarily supposed to save us from debt in the first place. It is akin to a household being violently robbed by its security guards.
How else can we characterize a situation in which the NNPCL has generated debts which we must pay; not on account of understandable human errors, but, because of pre-meditated and relentless assault by its officers?
The choice is ours. We either stop ingrained corruption in the NNPCL or we drown in debt eventually. Unlimited borrowing is simply impossible to contemplate. The handwriting is already on the wall. Public debt skyrocketed to N152.39 trn in the second quarter of 2025. It will certainly surpass that by year end given FG’s inability to collect 75 per cent of budgeted revenue – according to Finance Minister, Wale Edun. The 2026 Budget envisages N17.89trn more loans; but, the actual loans taken will probably exceed that figure – as usual.
Salaries and debt servicing are expected to gulp 105 per cent of the revenue, if the FG manages to improve significantly on its revenue collection performance. Otherwise, salaries and debt servicing might consume over 150% of revenue. If that happens, the loans eventually taken will exceed N17.89trn. When will this cycle of corruption, followed by borrowing end? Unless Nigerian governments develop the will to prosecute and jail NNPCL looters, the day will come when there is nobody to borrow from. The clock is ticking.
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