MMA fans were treated to quite the final bout on the first card of the Paramount era, as Justin Gaethje won his second UFC (interim) title at UFC 324 on Saturday in a classic fight against Paddy Pimblett.
This weekend, we get a rematch of Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes to headline the card. Volkanovksi won the previous fight back in April 2025 by unanimous decision.
Here are my best bets for UFC 325, which takes place this weekend at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Alexander Volkanovski (-150) vs. Diego Lopes (+125)
In their prior title-fight matchup, Lopes scored a second-round knockdown against Volkanovski, only to see the champ get stronger over the remaining rounds. The final fight totals show Volkanovski pushing a high-pressure offense, throwing far more volume and with much better accuracy of strikes than Lopes. He also added 11 takedown attempts, though only landed one. Still, that forward attack nullified any size advantage Lopes might have had. Basically, Volkanovski delivered his usual strategy that plays to his strengths.
We’re left with Volkanovski being the busier and more accurate striker, while also having tighter defense. He’s also more likely to mix in takedowns, which could sway rounds should he actually land them this time. Offense wins fights, but defense wins championships. The glaring stat is the head strike defense of Lopes, which is an abysmal 55%. That is not championship caliber.
Eventually Volkanovski’s age and cumulative damage will become more of a concern, but given that these two are not far removed from their last fight, there’s no reason to doubt the number just yet. The price is affordable, and I still like Volkanovski to get it done by decision or in the later rounds depending on how aggressive Lopes gets knowing he might not get another shot at this.
Bet: Volkanovski to win (-150)
Benoit Saint Denis (-350) vs. Dan Hooker (+275)
A striker-versus-grappler matchup all the way, and I almost always favor the grappler.
Though Hooker owns more knockdowns scored than any fighter on the card, his per-strike knockdown rate is actually lower than that of Saint Denis. So on the feet, it’s not as much of a disadvantage, with similar striking stats for each.
But on the ground is a different story, and BSD wastes no time trying to get fights down to the mat. He’s faced elite strikers before, and survived into the second round in his losses. Maybe those were learning opportunities to get even more aggressive getting to the mat, or perhaps tightening up his striking. Also, while Hooker has more of the striking pedigree, he has only one striking finish win since 2020.
Arguably his best days are behind him now aged 35, but BSD would still be wise to change levels before testing his chin too much.
Bet: Numbers lean Benoit Saint Denis even at the high price. I also think it takes Over 1.5 rounds, however it goes down, which might improve the price.
Mauricio Ruffy (-125) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+105)
This was the only upset potential I saw in the three available matchups among veterans, and apparently the market agreed with me enough to flip the line.
This is likely going to play out entirely on the feet, as both these guys attempt very few takedowns. They’ve spent minimal cage time on the ground because they also both have strong takedown defense, so we can focus on the top half of the Uber stats.
In addition to a size and range advantage, Ruffy is more accurate at range, with a balanced and precise attack. Perhaps more importantly, his defense is excellent compared to the below-average defense of Fiziev. That suggests Fiziev in an uphill battle to close range while eating lots of damage along the way.
While Fiziev has the more diverse kicking game and tends to swing for the fences with few jabs, he has only two knockdowns scored in a fairly large sample size. Ruffy has yet to prove himself against comparable opponents, and his own sample size leaves more room for risk, but I still like his performance stats enough to support the lean here.
Bet: Even after odds flipped, there’s still a lean on Duffy.
