Christmas will be a cold one this year, but it’s unlikely anyone will be rushing outside to build a snowman after opening their presents.
The forecast for December 25 is in, and temperatures are set to drop, potentially going as low as 2°C during the day.
It’s possible that there could be flurries of snow and sleet, even as far south as London, making it technically a White Christmas.
However, most of us would experience it as distinctly grey or green, as all that is officially needed is evidence of a single snowflake falling somewhere in the UK over the 24 hours of Christmas Day.
Paul Gundersen, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, said today: ”There’s a small chance of light showers, which, if they occur, will be a mix of rain, sleet and some snow over higher ground. The chance is relatively low as it stands, and there are no strong signals for significant or widespread snowfall.’
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What is the weather forecast for Christmas Day?
The good news is that Father Christmas won’t have to drive his sleigh through the heavy rain and storms we’ve been having, as they are set to clear before the big day.
High pressure is set to bring drier, more settled conditions.
Forecaster Jim Dale told Metro that this will bring with it a bitingly cold wind, however, so anyone out for a traditional walk after their turkey should make sure to bring their hats and gloves.
He said the week will turn ‘significantly’ colder, but there will be a ‘massive lack’ of snow. If there is any, ‘you’re not looking at anything that will cover the ground – it could be a sleet flake or a snowflake here or there.’
This chance would mainly be in the eastern counties, including London, he said: ‘But look: it’s a flake. You might not spot it, or it could just arrive in the wind.’
The Met Office UK forecast for Christmas Eve to Boxing Day says: ‘Heading into Christmas high pressure will bring drier, more settled, albeit colder weather with chilly easterly winds. Perhaps some light rain or wintry flurries at times in the south.’
Will other countries get a White Christmas?
According to Jim Dale, of British Weather Services, parts of the US are expected to get ‘the reverse’, and might see record-breaking heat due to a plume of warm air moving up through the central plains towards the northeast.
Places like Houston in Texas could see temperatures as high as 27°C, which is some ten degrees above average for the time of year.
Even Oslo, Stockholm and Helsinki, where you would expect a postcard snowy scene for Christmas, are unlikely to get snowfall on the day.
There could be some snow falling in central Europe, however, in cities such as Zurich, Bratislava, and Vienna.
‘Maybe Paris sneaks a flake, but it’s those central regions that stand the best chance,’ he said.
How likely is a white Christmas in the UK?
For many of us, snow is a symbol of Christmas, but in the UK, it very rarely falls during the festive period.
We are more likely to see snow in January and February, rather than in December, according to the Met Office.
On average, snow actually settles on the ground for three days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January and 3.4 days in February.
For the Met Office to declare a white Christmas, a single snowflake has to be seen falling by an official observer or an automated weather station during the 24 hours of December 25.
The Met Office says that white Christmases were more common in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Since 1960, around half of the years have at least 5% of recorded snow fall on Christmas Day.
There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground four times since 1960 – in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.
UK's last white Christmas in 2010
The last white Christmas was in 2010 with the highest amount of snow on the ground recorded at 83% of stations.
Snow and sleet also fell at 19% of the stations.
While classic festive scenes with blankets of snow took over the UK, severe travel disruption was also caused due to frozen canals, icy roads and stuck trains during the white Christmas.
Flights and trains were cancelled as the UK’s transport network was threatened to buckle because of the snow and ice.
Schools were also affected badly, with at least 800 closed in Wales, 600 in Northern Ireland and more than 500 in Scotland.
Some areas saw substantial deep snow, with over two feet reported in South Downs and drifts over 20 feet in Yorkshire.
Technically, 2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK with 11% of weather stations recording snow falling, although none reported it settling on the ground.
Climate change has brought higher average temperatures which has reduced the chances of a snowy Christmas, the forecaster says.
UK regions with the best chances of a white Christmas
The Met Office has said that any snow will probably be confined to high ground, and the chance is currently still relatively low.
They said the south would be most likely to see ‘light rain or wintry flurries at times’.
Jim Dale said eastern areas, including London, are most likely to see any flakes.
Latest betting odds at William Hill put Edinburgh at 5/1 for a White Christmas, while London, Dublin, Cardiff and Belfast are all priced at 6/1.
With three days to go, however, it’s possible things could still change.
So keep an eye on the forecast, and enjoy a dusting of snowy icing sugar on your Christmas cake even if the skies disappoint.
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