By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the oil and gas industry regulator, said Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, dropped by 8.3 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 1.544 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.684 million bpd recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
The commission did not provide reasons in its report released Thursday, but there were indications that it might be fueled mainly by limited investment and production.
However, on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the commission said the nation’s oil output, including condensate, dropped marginally to 1.544 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025.
This showed that Nigeria did not meet its 1.5 million bpd quota of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as the regulator said that of the 1.544 million bpd output, 122,385 bpd were condensate, which OPEC does not recognise during the period.
It also showed that the federal government did not meet its 2.06 million bpd budget 2025 target during the period. The budget was also based on $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of approximately N1,500/$1 during the period.
The report stated: “Lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate were 1.52 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd, respectively. The average crude oil production represents 95% of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).
“Daily average production was 1,544,345 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,421,960 bopd) and condensate (122,385 bopd).”
Similarly, in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), released yesterday, OPEC, which ensures the stabilisation of oil markets, disclosed that on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, Nigeria’s oil output, excluding condensate, dropped marginally to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.436 million bpd in November 2025, indicating a decrease of 0.9 percent.
According to OPEC, the figures for December 2025 were based on data obtained from direct communication, indicating that Nigeria did not meet OPEC’s 1.5 million bpd quota.
However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the Organisation said the nation’s oil output dropped to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.485 million bpd in November 2025, based on data obtained from direct communication.
Reacting in a recent interview with Vanguard yesterday, Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director, Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, said: “The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps remain overwhelming, and policy uncertainty continues to weaken investor confidence.
“The selective implementation of the PIA must stop. Nigeria urgently needs a clearly designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector. Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota.”
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