By Progress Godfrey
ABUJA — Nigeria’s terms of trade declined slightly in the third quarter of 2025 as rising import costs outpaced gains in export prices, according to the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Wednesday.
The All-Commodity Terms of Trade stood at 102.23 per cent in July, declined to 102.00 per cent in August, and edged up marginally to 102.13 per cent in September, resulting in an overall quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.10 percentage points.
The report showed that the All-Commodity Group Import Index rose by 0.16 percentage points in Q3, driven by higher prices of commodities such as cement, footwear, wood products and paper.
In contrast, the All-Commodity Group Export Price Index increased by just 0.06 percentage points, reflecting modest price gains in vehicles, base metals, foodstuffs and animal products.
“The All Products Terms of Trade (TOT) Index, on average, decreased by 0.10 percentage points,” the NBS stated, underscoring the impact of rising import costs on Nigeria’s trade position.
On a regional basis, the All-Region Export Index rose by 0.06 percentage points, supported mainly by increased exports to America and Africa. However, the All-Region Import Index climbed by 0.16 percentage points, driven by higher import prices from all regions, leading to a 0.10 percentage-point decline in the All-Region Terms of Trade.
The bureau identified India, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy as Nigeria’s major export destinations during the quarter.
Explaining the significance of the indicator, the NBS said: “The terms of trade represent the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. An increase in the TOT implies that export values are rising relative to imports, enabling the country to afford more imports for the same export value.”
The bureau noted that oil price movements remain a critical determinant of Nigeria’s terms of trade, adding that higher oil prices could improve the ratio if production levels are sustained.
It added that the marginal decline in the country’s terms of trade underscores the need for export diversification and reduced import dependence.
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