Champions League permutations: What Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and others need to qualify for last 16

Five of the six Premier League sides have it all to play for in the final round of league-phase fixtures as they look to secure their place in the Champions League round of 16.

Arsenal, along with Bayern Munich, are the only two sides assured of a top-right finish, which means they avoid the perilous two-legged playoffs next month.

And while Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Newcastle all currently sit inside the top eight, there is work to be done to ensure they stay there and don’t drop out after the final gameweek.

Manchester City, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back from their shock defeat to Bodo/Glimt and sneak into the top eight, potentially at the expense of one of the other English side’s.

There is a possibility, though, that all six Premier League clubs could secure a top-eight finish, an outcome that would boost the league’s hopes of securing a fifth automatic spot in the Champions League for a second successive season.

Ahead of the final matchday, here are the full permutations for every Premier League team to qualify for the Champions League last 16.

What do Arsenal need to qualify for the round of 16?

In short, nothing.

Arsenal currently top the league table with 21 points after winning every Champions League game up to this point. A top-two finish is also already secured, meaning the Gunners will play the second leg of each of their knockout rounds at home.

Mikel Arteta’s side take on Kairat Almaty on Wednesday, and will need just a point to ensure they end the league phase top of the pile.

What do Liverpool need to qualify for the round of 16?

An impressive win at Marseille last week ensures that Liverpool have their top-eight fate in their own hands heading into the final week.

Sitting fourth on 15 points, Arne Slot’s side know a win against Qarabag at Anfield on Wednesday will secure them a spot in the top eight.

A draw should also be enough for the Reds to cling onto a top-eight spot, but results elsewhere, particularly big wins for Barcelona, Sporting CP and City just outside the top eight, could see Liverpool tumble into the playoffs on goal difference.

Should Liverpool fall to a shock defeat, goal difference would not be able to help them, and the fate of the six-time champions would be totally out of their hands.

What do Tottenham need to qualify for the round of 16?

European football has proven to be a rare solace for Thomas Frank in what has proved an otherwise tricky start to his tenure as Tottenham boss.

A win over Borussia Dortmund last week leaves Spurs in fifth place on 14 points, and one above the eight sides looming on 13 points below them.

Tottenham travel to face Eintracht Frankfurt in final round, with the German side one of four teams who have already been eliminated and cannot qualify for the playoffs.

Like Liverpool, a win for Tottenham will confirm their top-eight status, while a draw would leave them vulnerable to results below. Another loss would surely see Spurs trickle out of the top eight, given the size and proximity of the chasing pack.

What do Newcastle need to qualify for the round of 16?

Newcastle are the first of three English sides in the cohort on 13 points, and face the toughest final fixture: away at Paris Saint-Germain, the defending champions, who are on identical points and +10 goal difference to Eddie Howe’s side

That goal difference is the best of any of the eight sides on 13 points, meaning a win will virtually guarantee Newcastle a spot in the top eight.

Should they draw or lose, the Magpies will be at the mercy of those below them, and only two teams would need to better their result for Newcastle to slip into the playoffs.

What do Chelsea need to qualify for the round of 16?

Having navigated a jam-packed start to life as Chelsea boss, Liam Rosenior would surely love to avoid a two-legged Champions League fixture next month.

His Chelsea side currently sit in eighth, the final automatic spot, and with a goal difference one superior to Barcelona and Sporting and two better than City.

A win against Napoli, who currently sit 25th, should be enough for Chelsea, especially given that the two teams directly above them – PSG and Newcastle – face each other.

But there is a chance that a narrow win could open the door for those below them if they can record big victories in their final matches.

Like Newcastle above them, a draw or defeat for the Blues would almost certainly mean a spot in the playoffs.

What do Man City need to qualify for the round of 16?

A shock defeat to Bodo/Glimt last week threw City’s top-eight aspirations into grave doubt.

Guardiola’s side sit in 11th place ahead of the visit of Galatasaray on Wednesday, and are likely in need of a high-scoring win and dropped points from at least two sides above them to avoid the playoffs.

When are the Champions League knockout rounds?

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