The cane toad's devastating march across northern Australia is almost complete, with the invasive species expected to be widespread in Western Australia's Pilbara by 2041 if left unchecked, a sobering new study has found.
The toxic creatures could colonise three-quarters of the Pilbara, threatening 25 native species in the biodiversity hotspot, the study led by Curtin University has found.
These include several species of native marsupial predators like northern quolls, ghost bat and kaluta, as well as frog-eating snakes, blue-tongue skinks, and goannas.
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Eradicating the toads from the Pilbara once they're established would be "virtually impossible" and would cost "billions", according to the study's lead author, Dr Judy Dunlop.
However, co-author Dr Chris Jolly from Charles Darwin University says a containment strategy is still possible.
Cane toads require access to freshwater as they migrate and spread.
The pests have populated the Northern Territory in the last two decades.
"It is what we have learnt from toads in the NT that has provided the crucial information to inform the potential impacts of toads if they were to make it into the Pilbara, as well as understanding how and when they might get there," Jolly said.
The Northern Territory had naturally occurring containment zones using seawater, with coastal locations such as Groote Eylandt and the Tiwi Islands acting as refuges for wildlife like northern quolls.
Currently, the toads are approaching a naturally dry region where the Great Sandy Desert meets the ocean as they approach Western Australia.
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There, the only water sources are man-made cattle watering points.
Upgrading these water sources from open dams to concrete tanks and troughs designed to be inaccessible to the toads would remove the "stepping stones" used by the toads to cross the arid zone.
"This targeted intervention could halt their advance into the Pilbara, protecting its unique biodiversity and reducing the risk of catastrophic declines in native species such as northern quolls, ghost bats, goannas, and blue-tongue skinks," Dunlop said.
Dunlop said it was always preferable to prevent an environmental hazard before it occurs.
"The investment required for containment is modest compared to the astronomical costs and low feasibility of eradication."
The report authors suggest a similar strategy could also be used in the Northern Territory's arid zones, reducing their numbers during the dry season.
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