Nifty eyes relief rally on tariff hopes, FIIs remain a drag

A market rebound is likely early in the shortened trading week after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday signalled the potential removal of an additional 25% tariff on India. Though the market looks oversold after last week’s sell-off, any possible bounce would depend on a decline in foreign institutional selling. Markets are shut today for Republic Day. Most analysts identify the 24,650– 24,900 zone as a crucial support area. Any recovery, however, is expected to face stiff resistance in the 25,300–25,400 zone, with a more durable improvement in sentiment likely only if the index manages to reclaim higher resistance bands closer to 25,600 and above. 127519200CHANDAN TAPARIA HEAD – DERIVATIVES & TECHNICALS, WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FIN SERVWhere is the Nifty headed? The immediate trend of the index and the broader market remains weak amid global uncertainties and sustained FII selling pressure. However, the silver lining is that the index is now approaching a major structural support zone and is showing oversold signals across most momentum and mechanical indicators. Historically, all intermediate corrections since 2020 have halted around the 20-month moving average, which is placed near the 24,650–24,800 zone. The recent correction also aligns with seasonality trends, as January has been a negative month in most of the past seven years. Historical patterns show that weakness in January and February often creates opportunities for a stronger March–April phase, suggesting that market participants can gradually accumulate selective positions for the next recovery leg. From a technical price perspective, Nifty must defend the 24,650–24,800 support cluster to trigger a pullback towards its 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, placed near 25,475– 25,650 in the near term. Trading Strategy: The recommended strategy for Nifty options for the monthly February 24 expiry is a Bear Put Spread, suitable for a mildly negative bias and portfolio hedging till the 24,500 zone ahead of the Budget. Buy one lot of 25,000 strike put options at a premium of around Rs 323 and simultaneously sell one lot of 24,500 put options at a premium of around Rs 173. The maximum risk is 150 points, or Rs 9,750 per lot, while the maximum profit is 350 points, or Rs 22,750 per lot.TOP STOCK BETS HCL TECHNOLOGIES BUY CMP: Rs 1,707 | Stop loss: Rs 1,668 | Target: Rs 1,780 HCL Technologies is among the stronger stocks in Nifty IT and is forming a higher base. The stock found support near Rs 1,668 and has shown resilience amid broader market declines. It has formed a cup-and-handle pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting the possibility of an upmove if it sustains above Rs 1,720. NATIONAL ALUMINIUM COMPANY BUY CMP: Rs 370 | Stop loss: Rs 357 | Target Rs 393. The stock has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the weekly chart and is on a winning streak for the ninth consecutive week. It has broken out of a seven-session consolidation phase with a decisive close above `370. Strength in metal prices continues to support momentum, potentially driving the next leg of the rally.AMOL ATHAWALE VP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, KOTAK SECURITIESWhere is Nifty headed? Last week, the market slipped below the 200-day simple moving average, and post the breakdown, selling pressure intensified. On the weekly charts, the index has formed a long bearish candle and is trading comfortably below short-term averages, which is technically negative. As long as Nifty trades below the 100-day SMA, placed near 25,500, the weak formation is likely to persist. However, due to temporary oversold conditions, a quick pullback rally cannot be ruled out. Trading StrategyFor short-term traders, volatility continues to dominate, making level-based trading in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures the preferred strategy. In Nifty futures, traders may look to sell on a break below 24,900, as this could accelerate selling pressure and push the index towards 24,700– 24,500. Conversely, buying may be considered above 25,200, with the pullback potentially extending to 25,350–25,500. In Bank Nifty futures, selling could be initiated below 58,000, signalling continuation of the corrective phase towards 57,500–57,100, while buy positions may be considered above 59,000, with a bounce seen towards 59,350–59,500. TOP STOCK BETS BHARTI AIRTEL BUY CMP: Rs 1,985 | Stop loss: Rs 1,940 | Target: Rs 2,085 The stock has corrected over 5% so far this month and is currently trading near an important retracement support level. Momentum indicators suggest a strong possibility of a quick pullback rally from current levels. For positional traders, Rs 1,940 will act as a key support level, above which the stock could bounce towards its 50-day SMA near Rs 2,085. SHRIRAM FINANCE BUY CMP: Rs 1,003 | Stop loss: Rs 965 | Target Rs 1,075 After a strong uptrend, the stock is currently witnessing range-bound activity. However, the short-term structure remains positive. On both daily and weekly charts, the stock is maintaining an uptrend continuation pattern, supporting further upside. Rs 965 remains a key support, above which the uptrend could extend towards Rs 1,075, with additional upside potential towards Rs 1,090–1,100.AJIT MISHRA SVP – RESEARCH, RELIGARE BROKINGWhere is Nifty headed? From a technical perspective, the index has slipped below its long-term moving average, 200-DEMA placed around 25,150, indicating the possibility of further downside in the near term. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the immediate support area, while a stronger cushion is placed in the 24,400–24,600 range. On the upside, the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle on any rebound attempt, with a major resistance positioned around 25,600–25,700. Trading Strategy A “sell on rise” approach is advised in both Nifty and Bank Nifty. In Nifty, traders may consider creating short positions on rebounds in the 25,200–25,300 range, with a stop loss at 25,450 and downside targets in the 24,750–24,900 zone. Similarly, rebounds in Bank Nifty towards the 58,700– 59,000 zone could be used as shorting opportunities, with a stop loss at 59,600 and potential downside towards 57,200–58,100. TOP STOCK BETS INFOSYS BUY CMP: Rs 1,670.80 | Stop loss: Rs 1,618 | Target: Rs 1,780 Stock is trading well above its moving average ribbon, indicating relative strength amid the broader market correction. While RSI is hovering near the 50 mark, signalling neutral momentum, stochastic indicators are gradually improving, suggesting a potential upside attempt. INDIAN ENERGY EXCHANGE SELL FEBRUARY FUTURES CMP: Rs 127.50 | Stop loss: Rs 137 | Target Rs 108 Stock displays a structurally weak technical setup following a breakdown from a prolonged consolidation phase. It is trading below key moving averages, which are now sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. RSI remains below the neutral zone, indicating weak momentum, while stochastic readings suggest that any pullbacks may be short-lived. As long as prices remain below the broken support-turned-resistance zone, the outlook stays negative.