China is playing the long game in this volatile Middle Eastern theater
Published 2 hours ago
Source: rt.com
Beijing is quietly reassessing its Syria strategy as a new leadership tests its appetite for risk and engagement
The fall of Bashar Assad’s government marked a decisive rupture in Syria’s modern political history, but it did not erase Damascus from Beijing’s strategic horizon.
Instead, it forced China to reassess how it engages a fractured state led by unfamiliar figures with a terrorist past, burdened by legitimacy challenges and economic ruin, yet still occupying a pivotal geopolitical crossroads. China’s evolving relationship with post-Assad Syria reveals less about ideological alignment and more about Beijing’s characteristic blend of caution, opportunism, and long-term strategic patience.
During the Assad era, Syria represented for China a reliable partner in the Middle East. Beijing’s approach was defined by non-interference rhetoric, diplomatic protection at the UN, and selective economic engagement that avoided deep exposure to sanctions or conflict risks. This approach intensified after 2011, when China repeatedly opposed Western-backed resolutions targeting Assad, framing its stance as a defense of sovereignty and opposition to regime change by force. While Russia carried the military burden of propping up Assad, China played a quieter role, offering political cover, humanitarian assistance, and the promise of postwar reconstruction investment.
Assad’s 2023 visit to China symbolized the peak of that relationship. Beijing elevated ties to a strategic partnership and signaled interest in integrating Syria into the Belt and Road Initiative. Yet even then, Chinese commitments remained vague, reflecting concerns over instability, sanctions exposure, and Syria’s limited economic capacity. China’s support for Assad was never unconditional; it was transactional, risk-averse, and grounded in a desire to counter Western interventionism rather than to save the political regime at all costs.
The collapse of Assad’s government fundamentally altered these calculations. China was confronted not only with a new political leadership but also with a Syrian state apparatus reshaped by years of insurgency, ideological fragmentation, and external influence. Beijing’s immediate response was muted. Unlike some regional actors that moved swiftly to engage the new authorities, China adopted a wait-and-see posture, emphasizing stability, inclusivity, and counterterrorism cooperation while refraining from early recognition or sweeping commitments.
This caution was evident in the first high-level contacts between post-Assad Syria and China. In November, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani led a delegation to Beijing that also included Hussein al-Salama, the newly appointed chief of Syria’s General Intelligence apparatus. The visit marked the first substantive diplomatic engagement between the new Syrian leadership and China, signaling mutual interest in reopening channels without prematurely defining the relationship.
Al-Shaibani represents a new diplomatic face for Syria. Relatively young and pragmatic, he has sought to project moderation and continuity in foreign policy while navigating the expectations of a domestic coalition that brought down Assad. His messaging has emphasized sovereignty, reconstruction, and diversification of partnerships beyond the West and Russia. For Beijing, al-Shaibani is a conventional interlocutor, someone who speaks the language of state diplomacy and understands China’s preference for gradualism.
Al-Salama, by contrast, embodies the contradictions and anxieties surrounding post-Assad Syria. He is a figure with documented links to Al-Qaeda during earlier phases of the conflict, and his elevation to head Syria’s intelligence services has alarmed many international observers. While al-Salama has publicly distanced himself from transnational jihadism and pledged to focus on internal security and counterterrorism, his past casts a long shadow, particularly in Beijing. China remains acutely sensitive to Islamist militancy due to its concerns over Xinjiang and the potential mobilization of Uyghur fighters who once operated in Syria.
China’s willingness to receive al-Salama nonetheless reflects pragmatic engagement rather than endorsement. Beijing appears intent on assessing whether Syria’s new leadership can deliver on its promises to suppress extremist networks and prevent Syria from once again becoming a hub for transnational militancy. Counterterrorism cooperation, information sharing, and assurances regarding Uyghur militants are central to China’s calculus, often outweighing ideological discomfort with Syria’s new power brokers.
Syria’s importance to China extends beyond security concerns. Geographically, Syria sits at the eastern Mediterranean crossroads linking Asia, Europe, and Africa, making it a potential node in long-term connectivity projects. Politically, Syria offers China an opportunity to reinforce its image as a power willing to engage states emerging from Western-backed regime change, provided they demonstrate a minimum level of stability, central authority, and pragmatism. Economically, Syria presents a market with immense reconstruction needs, from energy and infrastructure to telecommunications and housing.
Yet China’s experience during the civil war has instilled caution. Despite repeated discussions of reconstruction, Chinese companies largely stayed away, deterred by sanctions, insecurity, and weak institutions. Beijing learned that political alignment does not automatically translate into viable investment environments. In post-Assad Syria, these constraints are even more pronounced. The new government faces legitimacy challenges, fragmented security control, and limited access to international finance, all of which complicate Chinese engagement.
Early signs of economic cooperation between China and post-Assad Syria suggest modest ambitions. Discussions have focused on affordable infrastructure solutions, basic energy rehabilitation, telecommunications equipment, and humanitarian assistance rather than large-scale flagship projects. Chinese firms are exploring low-risk entry points, often through short-term contracts, equipment exports, or public-private arrangements that limit exposure. This reflects a broader Chinese strategy observed in other fragile states, prioritizing flexibility and exit options over transformative investment.
Diplomatically, China has sought to position itself as a stabilizing actor without becoming Syria’s primary external patron. Exchanges between Chinese and Syrian representatives underscore Beijing’s emphasis on inclusive governance, national reconciliation, and regional normalization. At the same time, China has avoided overt mediation roles or security guarantees, leaving those domains largely to regional actors and multilateral frameworks.
The contrast with China’s relationship with Assad is instructive. Under Assad, China dealt with a centralized, internationally recognized government that, while largely isolated, offered predictability. Post-Assad Syria offers neither predictability nor unity, but it does offer a chance for China to recalibrate its role. Beijing is no longer defending an embattled incumbent; it is probing whether a new political order can align with its core interests without generating unacceptable risks.
Several scenarios could shape the future of China-Syria relations. In a best-case scenario for Beijing, Syria’s new leadership consolidates authority, marginalizes extremist factions, and secures gradual sanctions relief. Under these conditions, China could expand its economic footprint incrementally, positioning itself as a key reconstruction partner while maintaining strategic autonomy. In a more likely middle scenario, Syria remains politically fragile but functionally stable enough for limited cooperation, resulting in a shallow but sustained relationship centered on trade, diplomacy, and security dialogue.
A worst-case scenario would involve renewed fragmentation or the reemergence of transnational jihadist networks, particularly those linked to Xinjiang. Such developments would likely prompt China to scale back engagement sharply, reverting to diplomatic minimalism and defensive counterterrorism postures. Unlike Russia or Iran, China shows little appetite for deeper entanglement in Syria’s internal power struggles.
Ultimately, China’s approach to post-Assad Syria reflects a broader pattern in its Middle East policy: engagement without over-commitment, principles without rigidity, and influence pursued through patience rather than force. Syria remains important to China, but not indispensable. Beijing is willing to test the waters, listen carefully, and move slowly, confident that time, rather than urgency, remains its greatest strategic asset.
