Franklin D. Roosevelt famously illustrated with a simple metaphor the need for a healthy transatlantic alliance. Justifying his decision to lend Great Britain warships and other military supplies in the early days of World War II, Roosevelt likened it to loaning a neighbor a garden hose to put out the fire consuming his house. Sure, Roosevelt charitably wanted to help a neighbor in need. But it was self-interested too; if the neighbor could extinguish the blaze, it wouldn’t spread to FDR’s home. The United States benefited from the friendship—and the buffer—that allies could provide.
Today, Donald Trump will fly to Europe. Ukraine is already ablaze. And now the president is ready to set a bunch of new houses on fire.
The president will speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, tomorrow, and he appears prepared to shatter the nearly 80-year-old NATO alliance in order to seize Greenland. In his quest to claim a strategically located island of ice and rock, Trump has turned against his nation’s most stalwart friends. He has antagonized and mocked panicked European leaders, threatened punishing tariffs on countries that object to his plans, and pointedly not ruled out using military force. Trump’s thirst for Greenland—even if he stops short of ordering an armed invasion—threatens to unravel the partnership born from the ashes of World War II that has, in the decades since, ensured the spread of peace, prosperity, and democracy on both sides of the Atlantic.
Today marks one year since Trump’s return to office, and in that time, he has fundamentally reshaped the United States’ relationship with the rest of the world. But nothing has upended the global order more than what would happen if he follows through on his threats toward Greenland. The island, of course, belongs to Denmark, which says that it is not available for the taking. Troops from Europe have been dispatched to the territory, and Greenland’s prime minister warned his populace to prepare for an invasion. If Trump were to persist, Denmark could trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defense pact, and then the unthinkable could occur: American soldiers firing on Europeans while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dream of NATO’s self-immolation is thoroughly realized.
[Read: Denmark’s Army chief says he’s ready to defend Greenland]
The annual meetings in Davos, normally a clubby gathering of business titans and political leaders, have been consumed by talk of what Trump may or may not do. European leaders have found themselves scrambling on strategy—appeasement? Defiance? Compromise? Early this morning, Trump posted screenshots of text messages that revealed the dilemma facing those leaders. (Lesson to everyone: Be careful what you text the guy unless you want the world to see.)
In one message, Mark Rutte—the secretary general of NATO, who has prized warm relations with Trump—praised the president’s foreign policies, then vowed that he is “committed to finding a way forward on Greenland.” But in another, French President Emmanuel Macron, whose relationship with Trump has been turbulent, admitted: “I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland.” In fact, Trump couldn’t be more clear, as he demonstrated once again by circulating a pair of presumably AI-generated images on social media. In one, he’s planting an American flag in Greenland. In the other, he’s lecturing European leaders in the Oval Office with a map behind him that depicts Greenland as part of the United States. (Canada and Venezuela too.)
Trolling close U.S. allies has seemingly been an unofficial policy of Trump’s second administration since its first days, beginning with Vice President Vance lecturing Europe in Munich on the virtues of free speech. But this time feels different for those nervously waiting in snowy Switzerland. The president’s address to the forum tomorrow is poised to be a defining moment, and Trump plans to make the unequivocal case that the United States should have Greenland, a senior White House official told me. For now, the administration is focused on purchasing Greenland or offering economic incentives to its residents and to those in Denmark, aides told me. But they are not ruling out the use of military force or economic pressure. The senior official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss internal strategy, added that the White House is considering joint military exercises, withholding participation in NATO, and additional tariffs. (The Supreme Court has continued to delay its ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, keeping that tool in play here.)
Yet even as the administration brandishes trade as a first-strike weapon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered this message in Davos today to European allies: “Sit back. Take a deep breath. Do not retaliate.” He added again: “Do not retaliate.” (Europe did not say that it would listen.) But Trump’s audacious power play won’t stop there: While in Davos, he’s also expected to lean on foreign leaders to join his fledgling Board of Peace, which includes a $1 billion price tag for permanent membership. A number of European heads of state expressed reservations about the board—including that it has a seat earmarked for Putin, who seemed to celebrate the invitation by launching a massive strike against Kyiv this morning. When Macron suggested that he would not join, Trump angrily threatened higher tariffs.
[Read: Trump’s billion-dollar Board of Peace]
And now he has a new grudge: After being denied the Nobel Peace Prize that he covets, Trump this week registered his bitter complaints with the prime minister of Norway, writing that because of the snub, “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace,” while incorrectly claiming that Denmark’s ownership of Greenland is not supported by “written documents, it’s only a boat that landed there hundreds of years ago.”
Some greeted the note with fact-checks and derision. But not the White House: Officials proudly distributed it for all to read.
Greenland is more than just ice and rock—and it has more strategic importance than looking really big on certain maps. Its location is key for Arctic defense and trade routes. It’s rich in minerals. And, yes, Trump has cited those factors as he has declared the island vital for U.S. national security. But Denmark has repeatedly counter-declared that it would happily grant many of Trump’s new demands. Want to build a new military base? Sure! Name it after yourself? Just ask! Yet Trump’s lust for Greenland goes beyond that, people close to him have told me. It’s about increasing American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and redrawing the maps of the world. The island is roughly 836,000 square miles, which would make it the largest territorial addition in U.S. history, eclipsing the Louisiana Purchase and the acquisition of Alaska. It would be something for the history books, the people close to him have said. And that’s what Trump is focused on.
Recent polls are clear: Americans strongly disapprove of an attempt to seize Greenland, especially by force. But Trump has been gazing past the midterms and toward his own legacy. A look back at his two previous appearances at Davos illustrates Trump’s evolution. In 2018, he was willing to be something of a deferential guest, shelving some of his nationalist ideology and even saying, “‘America First’ does not mean America alone.” He continued: “When the United States grows, so does the world.” (Hard to believe, I know.) And then, in early 2020, he offered a fairly standard campaign speech, boasting about American progress but evincing little care about what happens beyond the United States’ own borders. That is not the case in Trump 2.0.
At the one-year mark, Trump’s foreign policy has been defined by rampant interventionism. Although he has not ended as many conflicts as he claims (Trump’s count is eight and growing), the U.S. has played a mediator role in global hot spots, most notably in Gaza. After months of watching the violence, the president pressured both Israel and Hamas to reach a deal to release the hostages and implement a fragile cease-fire. But he’s also continued to erode the U.S.-led global order, instigating risky diplomatic and economic fights with allies. He has not consistently focused on the threat posed by China. His attention to the war in Ukraine has come and gone, but he continues to reflexively defer to Putin. Part of why European leaders were at first slow to challenge Trump’s Greenland rhetoric was that they didn’t want to provoke him into completely abandoning Kyiv, officials there have told me.
Trump has also fallen in love with the concept of one-and-done military interventions: the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the strikes on alleged terrorist targets in Syria and Nigeria, and, of course, the capture of the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro earlier this month. Aides have boasted that the Caracas operation was a turning point for the presidency; after limping to the finish of 2025 amid a series of electoral defeats, poor polls, and scandals, Trump seems reinvigorated. He is unchecked domestically—Minneapolis is under siege by federal forces—and internationally. He has been emboldened and has shown a new willingness to use force. In the hours before Air Force One was scheduled to lift off for Switzerland today, Trump was asked by a reporter how far he’d “be willing to go” to obtain Greenland.
“You’ll find out,” Trump answered.
Meanwhile, Europe waits. And watches for smoke.
