Avatar 3 made history as it crossed $1,000,000,000 – but does the franchise have a future?

Avatar: Fire and Ash may have been released before Christmas – and indeed literally last year – but it’s still been making headlines into 2026.

James Cameron’s threequel spectacular has a lot hanging in the balance as its performance will dictate the rest of the franchise’s future, much like 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water.

Cameron has Avatar 4 and 5 planned (and some bits partially filmed) for if Fire and Ash does well enough, but as one of the most expensive movies ever made – the budget is thought to be between $350-400 million (£260-298m) – it has to make an awful lot of money.

As in, over $2bn (£1.49bn), like its predecessors, who sit at the number one and three spots in the all-time highest grossing box office rankings.

This past weekend, its third on release, it passed the $1bn (£745m) milestone – making it just one of three Hollywood movies released in 2025 to do so; the others were live-action remake Lilo & Stitch ($1.038bn/£773.34m) and Zootropolis 2, which is still climbing at $1.558bn/£1.161bn globally. China’s animated sequel Ne Zha 2 dominated globally as the only movie to make over $2bn last year.

However, Fire and Ash’s return to Pandora and the Sully family, led by Jake (Sam Worthington) and Neytiri (Zoe Saldaña), also got a pretty damp reception from critics and had the smallest opening weekend of the movie series so far – so does Avatar have a cinematic future?

What was the critical reaction to Avatar: Fire and Ash?

Avatar 3 received a more damning reception from critics compared to the previous films, and perhaps more so than expected – although it did manage to hover, in general, on the more positive end of the spectrum.

It currently has a 66% score on review aggregator site Rotten Tomatoes, although The Way of Water managed 76% and the original 81%.

For The Telegraph, Robbie Collin described the movie as ‘mind-numbing’ and ‘like watching £300m of glitter tipped into a fish tank’ in a one-star review, while The Verge criticised Cameron for ‘recycling a lot of the franchise’s basics’.

With two stars awarded, The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw called it a ‘gigantically dull hunk of nonsense’.

In my review for Metro I was a touch more generous, but still kept it to three stars and argued it proved no film needs to be 197 minutes long, as well as criticising its ‘copy and paste’ attitude when compared to The Way of Water.

But as film critic and author James King weighed in to Metro: ‘The main thing is, Fire and Ash has put bums on seats in our cinemas and that’s a great thing. Personally, I thought it was unbearably twee and humourless but that meant nothing – the Avatar franchise has now proven itself critic-proof.

‘It’s up there with a handful of series, such as Bond and Harry Potter, which have become a tradition to watch on the big screen, a trip to the cinema even for folk who hardly ever go. If you can become part of people’s lives like that, the sky’s the limit.’

As a critic though? ‘God, I miss the Terminator-era James Cameron, before he got so touchy-feely.’ (And I’d be inclined to agree.)

Could Avatar 3 make $2,000,000,000?

This is the million-dollar (well billion – two billion!) dollar question, and the key to unlocking the franchise’s future though.

Generally, these films have had ‘long legs’ (staying power) in cinemas, raking in millions each weekend, with ‘impressively slim’ audience drop-offs each week, as King points out.

‘So I don’t see any reason why it won’t join its predecessors and hit $2bn.’

The Way of Water raked that in in around six weeks. If its momentum continues, as is usually the case, Fire and Ash is on track to manage the same feat.

‘There’s no question in my mind that it will make $2bn as clearly there’s still an appetite for them,’ argues Josh Glenn, co-host of Ramblin: An Amblin Podcast (and self-confessed Varang super-fan).

The Avatar franchise has now proven itself critic-proof

‘I’ve gone from a reactionary Avatar sceptic in my teens to a full-throated Avatar lover in my 30s, such is Cameron’s power to convince you that his world is worth caring about. Way of Water knocked my socks off and, though Fire and Ask couldn’t match it in terms of impact, its sequel proved that there’s still plenty of Pandora to explore and character dynamics to complicate.

‘For all the (in my opinion disingenuous) talk about the films’ lack of cultural footprint, people still turn up for them.’

Film critic Barry Levitt is more sceptical, comparing the franchise to a theme park ride that gives you ‘the time of your life’ – and then you completely forget about until the next one materialises.

‘I’ve learned not to bet against Cameron, but I think it’ll come up just short of $2bn – only just,’ he suggests of Fire and Ash’s potential box office haul.

Screenwriter and ‘day-one Avatar fan’ Dan Kelly also thinks Fire and Ash could fall short.

‘It won’t make $2bn based on the first few weeks, which is a shame as any cent you can afford to support Cameron’s Pandora party is well invested.

‘What it lacked in narrative originality, the film compensated with spectacle, environmental immersion, ever maturing performance and Cameron’s innate skill for telling simple but emotionally evolving storytelling.’

Meanwhile, journalist Andy Gaudion does think Fire and Ash will go the distance financially, but (whisper it) isn’t fussed if it doesn’t.

‘I honestly wouldn’t mind if James Cameron called it a day here or handed on the baton. Enough threads are closed off, and with the film proving a success at the box-office once again – and I do expect it to hit $2 billion at the rate it’s going – Cameron has a chance to go out on top with an unprecedented run at the box office.’

Is Avatar 4 happening?

This is, of course, all intertwined with Fire and Ash’s financial performance.

While Cameron has said he would hold a press conference to ‘tell you what we were gonna do’ if Disney doesn’t greenlight Avatar 4 and 5 – having even considered rounding off the project in novel form, except ‘people aren’t reading’ – his helming of future movies isn’t guaranteed.

Even before Fire and Ash’s cinematic release, he appeared to gently suggest he may step away from being quite so involved at every level with Avatar 4 – even if he still held the title of ‘director’.

In an interview with The Hollywood Reporter Cameron signalled he was ready to move on and had ‘other stories to tell’, explaining that he would rely more on second unit directors with day-to-day duties as he’s previously operated every camera while filming performance capture.

‘On the second film, I started to lay off some of that to [virtual second unit director] Richard Baneham and to other people. I can imagine laying off the entire thing when I’ve already set the stage for exactly how a scene plays out, and then I’ll circle back around in editorial. So yeah, that’s possible,’ he added.

Does that change fans’ level of excitement towards the future of the franchise?

‘Fire and Ash was a glorious and visually astonishing delight, and the ending felt so complete that I’d be happy for it to end as a trilogy. But if Cameron wants more, so do I — I just can’t imagine anyone else making an Avatar movie,’ Levitt shared, with Kelly agreeing because there’s ‘only one big Jim’.

‘[But] my interest diminishes with every inch he separates from the project,’ he added.

For Gaudion, he thinks that, creatively, it’s time the 71-year-old Cameron ‘moved on’ instead.

‘I would much rather Cameron scratch other itches with what time he has left in his career and build new worlds and experiences. He’s one of our best blockbuster world-builders and storytellers, and there’s a sense he’s starting to feel cornered by his own creation.’

Only time – and continuing bums-on-seats – will tell.

Avatar: Fire and Ash is in cinemas now.

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