By Peter Egwuatu
The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Manager Index, PMI report, has indicated that the Nigeria private sector remained in sustained growth at the end of 2025 as improvements in customer demand fed through to higher new orders, output and purchasing activity.
The report for December 2025 stated that employment also increased, but the rate of job creation remained marginal.
“Inflationary pressures picked up modestly in December but remained generally close to recent lows. Meanwhile, business confidence improved sharply” the report added
The headline figure derived from the survey is the PMI. Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration.
The headline PMI posted 53.5 in December, little-changed from 53.6 in November and signalling a solid monthly improvement in business conditions as 2025 drew to a close. The latest strengthening in operating conditions was the thirteenth in as many months, and broadly in line with the average for 2025 as a whole.
Commenting on the report, Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, stated: “Headline PMI moderated for the second consecutive month in December, although still in the growth territory and the latest reading is broadly in line with the average for 2025 as a whole.
“The continued expansion in business activity in December, albeit slightly softer than November, reflects higher customer demand, which supported a marked monthly increase in new orders. “This in turn encouraged companies to expand their purchasing activity and inventory holdings.
“Meanwhile, there was a marked improvement in business confidence among the companies as sentiment hit a six-month high, linked to planned investments in business expansions, including opening of new branches and plans to boost products exports.
“While overall input prices increased sharply in December from the near five-year low posted in November, the rate of inflation was weaker than the 2025 average.
“Because of this high input cost, selling prices also increased in December with the most significant price increase seen in the Manufacturing sector. The pickup in inflationary pressures in December may be connected to the higher spending patterns associated with the December festive period. And so, inflation should increase Month on Month (MoM) and Year on Year (YoY) in December, although the YoY increase is likely to be significant on account of a low-base effect from the corresponding period of the prior year – an outcome of the country’s rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI).
“Therefore, we estimate inflation at 1.44% MoM which implies a CPI of 132.34, and YoY headline inflation of 32.34% in December.”
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