This year is likely to contain a wealth of potential dangers for Sir Keir Starmer – and he has chosen to start it with a bullish interview on the BBC.
The Prime Minister is heading into 2026 with record low approval ratings and near-constant chatter about who in his party might replace him if things don’t improve.
Local elections in May are expected to be catastrophic for Labour, providing a prime opportunity for those who think they could do a better job.
But in an appearance on Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday morning show, he projected confidence that he could win the public around.
When the presenter flagged skepticism that Starmer will still be in No 10 the next time new year rolls around, he interrupted her: ‘I will be sitting in this seat by 2027 and if this long-form interview works, we can try it again in January of next year as well.’
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Repeatedly, the PM brought up what he called a ‘five-year mandate for change’ handed to him by voters in the 2024 election.
He suggested this meant he had until 2029 – the year the next election is scheduled – to prove he could turn around the UK’s fortunes and demonstrate he could improve people’s lives.
Starmer said: ‘I will be judged, and I know I’ll be judged, when we get to the next election, on whether I’ve delivered on the key things that matter most to people.’
While the scale of Labour’s parliamentary victory in summer 2024 is beyond doubt, there has been no shortage of concern over the speed at which the PM appears to have lost the favour of the public.
Those worries burst into the open ahead of the autumn Budget, when briefings from within No 10 suggested Health Secretary Wes Streeting was preparing to launch a coup.
The furore that followed is widely seen to have weakened the Prime Minister – and even strengthened Streeting if he was to take a punt.
Will Starmer still be Prime Minister this time next year?
Metro’s Senior Politics Reporter Craig Munro assesses the PM’s chances…
It’s not exactly a great sign when your big New Year interview contains a ton of questions about how long you’ll be staying in your job.
Usually, this kind of speculation could be dismissed as navel-gazing Westminster gossip – but not this time.
I wouldn’t be surprised if many families around the country discussed this exact topic at the Christmas dinner table a couple of weeks ago.
So how likely is it that Starmer will be booted out this year?
That depends on a couple of things: clear evidence that Labour faces certain disaster if he stays at the helm and – crucially – a clear successor who could turn things around.
With the local elections coming up in May, it isn’t hard to imagine the first element of the equation coming to pass.
But what about the second?
In Westminster, the chat is that the PM might be saved by the lack of a clear alternative.
Andy Burnham would struggle to get the necessary seat in Parliament. Wes Streeting would struggle to get the support of Labour members. Angela Rayner would struggle with the fallout from the tax row that led to her resignation.
If I was Starmer, though, I wouldn’t be thrilled by the idea that the only thing keeping me in power is the mistakes of my colleagues.
However, Starmer used his interview today to set out why he thought questions about a change in leadership would backfire on his party.
He said: ‘Under the last government, we saw constant chopping and changing of leadership, of teams.
‘It caused utter chaos, utter chaos, and it’s amongst the reasons that the Tories were booted out so effectively at the last election.
‘Nobody wants to go back to that. It’s not in our national interest.’
In a swipe at figures in his own party who were agitating for someone new at the top, the PM framed the upcoming election in existential terms as Reform UK hold a commanding polling lead.
He said: ‘If you look at the elections this year, even, in Norway, in the Netherlands, in Australia, in Canada, it’s been a fight between the moderates and a right-wing proposition.
‘That is what we’re up against, that is the fight of our time – I intend to lead us into that fight.
‘What I don’t think will help us is if a Labour government turns back to the chaos of the last Tory government. That would gift Nigel Farage.’
Donald Trump’s capture of Nicolas Maduro represents the PM’s first major challenge of 2026, with questions over whether the move broke international law and weakened the moral authority of the West.
In the interview, which took place yesterday ahead of its broadcast today, Starmer said he wanted to wait to ‘establish the facts’ and refused to condemn the action.
He later said he backed international law but the UK would ‘shed no tears’ over the apparent end of Maduro’s regime.
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