It may appear superfluous to once again warn of the existential threat confronting Nigeria’s continued existence as a multiparty democracy, especially given the manner in which the All Progressives Congress (APC) has continued to ride roughshod across the political landscape. Yet what remains disturbingly underappreciated is not the threat itself, but the striking ill-preparedness of the political class—particularly the opposition—to confront the gravity of what is at stake.
That reality again came to light earlier this week when former Rivers State governor, Chibuike Amaechi, firmly ruled himself out as a possible running mate to the leading opposition figure, Atiku Abubakar. Amaechi, who has commendably maintained a consistent critique of the democratic shortcomings of the President Bola Tinubu administration, made it clear that he considered himself more suited to the office of president than to any subordinate role. His declaration, coming against the backdrop of Peter Obi’s characteristically vague positioning, compelled a recent commentary by this correspondent on Atiku’s VP Problem, published on GWG.ng.
The piece clearly unsettled sections of the opposition, particularly aides of the former vice president and elements within the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Yet, notably, none of the reactions confronted the substance of the argument. No one denied the core reality: that Atiku—and indeed Nigeria—faces a serious dilemma arising from the opposition’s indecision and lack of strategic coherence ahead of 2027. Peter Obi, whose supporters— popularly known as the Obidients— remain convinced that he won the 2023 election and was cheated by former INEC Chairman, Ambassador Mahmood Yakubu, continues to indulge the belief that the feat can be replicated, if not surpassed.
That belief persists despite the irony that the same electoral body is now firmly entrenched under a Commanderin-Chief whom the Obidients accuse of benefiting from the alleged injustice attributed to Ambassador Yakubu. Obi is relentlessly egged on by supporters who frame Nigeria’s redemption as being singularly anchored on his messianic emergence. Unsurprisingly, this has at times translated into a certain unsteadiness in his engagements and negotiations with the broader political class.
One political actor captured Obi’s predicament to this correspondent earlier this week by referencing George Orwell’s classic 1930s essay, Shooting an Elephant. In the essay, Orwell recounts the dilemma of a British colonial police officer in Burma who, against his own judgment, shoots an elephant simply to avoid looking weak before an expectant crowd. That, increasingly, is the box Obi finds himself in. Pressured by a fervent support base that sees him as the only viable option for Nigeria, he is compelled to act not always by strategic calculation but by the weight of expectation.
His supporters conveniently gloss over his missteps in Anambra State, where his leadership failed to prevent the Labour Party’s avoidable and disastrous outing in the recent governorship election. Many of these supporters, living abroad and insulated from the daily harshness of Nigeria’s socioeconomic realities, often fail to fully appreciate the complexities of navigating the present quagmire. Atiku Abubakar, the other principal opposition figure, is himself burdened by accusations of monopolising tickets and pursuing his ambitions with an air of entitlement. Critics argue that he expects others to subordinate their interests to his cause without demonstrating a reciprocal willingness to accommodate theirs. This perception has cost him valuable allies over time.
Whatever the arguments, the reality remains stark: Nigeria risks sliding into a de facto one-party state if Atiku and Obi are unable to make painful but necessary sacrifices. Both men have publicly committed to a single-term presidency. The unresolved question, however, is simple and brutal—who goes first? If Obi contests and misses the 2027 window, the presidency will almost certainly rotate back to the North in 2031. That would push the next realistic opportunity for a Southeast contender to 2039, by which time Obi would be 77 years old. It is against this backdrop that some opposition strategists argue that the most viable route to halting the APC’s blitzkrieg is for Obi to bide his time and deputise Atiku in 2027. It is an argument that many around Obi are even beginning to canvass.
Yet even this calculation is increasingly undermined by shifting political realities arising from the Tinubu phenomenon. The once-assumed equation of Atiku sweeping the North while Obi dominates the Southeast and South-South no longer holds. The APC has consolidated significant influence in both the SouthSouth and Southeast, aided by the open allegiance of most governors in those regions to President Bola Tinubu. In the North, enclaves such as Southern Kaduna, Taraba, and Plateau— once thought of as no-go areas for the APC—are also collapsing. It is now commonly reported that Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State, on account of the crisis in the PDP, has decided to take the least risky political route by defecting to the APC.
In Southern Kaduna, the deliberate efforts of Governor Uba Sani to address long-standing infrastructure and security challenges inherited from his predecessor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, have significantly improved the party’s standing. These have been reinforced by President Tinubu’s quiet but impactful interventions in the area. Tellingly, the PDP senator representing Kaduna South, Sunday Katung, defected to the APC earlier this week. Still, deeper fault lines remain— economic hardship, pervasive insecurity across the North, and persistent allegations of nepotism.
These are potent issues the opposition could deploy against Tinubu. But their effectiveness will depend entirely on whether the opposition can first confront its own contradictions and gather itself into a coherent force. In the end, the question may come down to whether Peter Obi is prepared to shoot the elephant of ego and expectation that his supporters have erected around him—or whether, like Orwell’s reluctant marksman, he will wobble into 2027 merely to avoid disappointing the crowd, regardless of the consequences.
The post Peter Obi and the elephant he must shoot, by Emmanuel Aziken appeared first on Vanguard News.
