By Gift ChapiOdekina, Abuja
The House of Representatives has adopted the report of its Committees on Finance and on National Planning and Economic Development on the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).
The report, presented on Thursday by the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, Rep. James Abiodun Faleke, followed a review of submissions from Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) as well as Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs).
In its recommendations, the House endorsed crude oil benchmark prices of $64.85 per barrel for 2026, $64.30 for 2027 and $65.50 for 2028. The committees noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production performance had shown improvement, citing data from the December 2025 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, which indicated strong month-on-month production gains in November 2025.
Projected domestic crude oil production was approved at 1.84 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, increasing to 1.88 mbpd in 2027 and 1.92 mbpd in 2028.
On macroeconomic assumptions, the House endorsed exchange rate projections of ₦1,512 to the dollar in 2026, ₦1,432.15 in 2027 and ₦1,383.18 in 2028, in line with efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to stabilise the naira and improve coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.
Inflation was projected to decline from 16.5 per cent in 2026 to 13 per cent in 2027 and nine per cent in 2028. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was projected at 4.68 per cent in 2026, 5.96 per cent in 2027 and 7.9 per cent in 2028, with the committees expressing optimism about growth prospects driven by ongoing economic and tax reforms.
The House also endorsed the implementation of the new Tax Acts, describing them as important tools for economic reform and development. It further recommended the adoption of a National Scanning Policy under the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Services, in collaboration with relevant agencies, to enhance revenue assurance, improve trade facilitation, reduce leakages and strengthen transparency and national security.
On fiscal aggregates, the committees approved proposed Federal Government expenditure of ₦54.46 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. Retained revenue was estimated at ₦31.83 trillion, while new domestic and foreign borrowings were projected at ₦20.38 trillion.
Debt service was put at ₦15.52 trillion, pensions, gratuities and retirees’ benefits at ₦1.376 trillion, and the fiscal deficit at ₦22.63 trillion.
Capital expenditure, excluding transfers, was estimated at ₦20.131 trillion, while statutory transfers were projected at ₦3.152 trillion and the Sinking Fund at ₦388.54 billion. Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure was pegged at ₦15.265 trillion, with special interventions for recurrent and capital expenditure estimated at ₦200 billion and ₦14 billion respectively.
Following the adoption of the report, the House resolved that the projections and recommendations contained in the 2026–2028 MTEF and FSP be sustained to support economic stability, growth and development over the medium term.
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