Rachel Reeves is the face of this budget. But the really big decisions are not in Labour’s hands | Larry Elliott

The UK’s economic policy isn’t decided by politicians, but by the OBR and the Bank of England. This is a system in dire need of a rethink

The budget is still a month away and speculation about its contents is already in full swing. Details of what Rachel Reeves has planned will dribble out over the coming weeks, but two things are certain: taxes are going up, and they are going up by a significant amount.

Obviously, the chancellor would prefer not to be in this position. The government has had a rotten year and this is reflected in its dire opinion poll ratings. The budget is unlikely to make Labour more popular, with a strong risk that tax increases will slow the economy, as they did last year.

Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist