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March Madness is synonymous with thrilling upsets and unexpected narratives, as underdog teams, affectionately termed “Cinderella teams,” defy expectations to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.
As we approach the 2025 edition, several programs stand out as potential bracket-busters poised to captivate the nation.
Drake Bulldogs
Drake is making a compelling case that the gap between Division I and Division II basketball isn’t as wide as it seems. First-year head coach Ben McCollum, who won four Division II national championships at Northwest Missouri State, has seamlessly transitioned to Drake, bringing three key players from his former team. The result? A dominant 27-3 record, including a conference-best 17-3 mark in the Missouri Valley Conference.
Even more impressive than their win total is how they achieve it—at least from Slingshot’s perspective. Coupled with their deliberate, slow-paced style—the slowest in the country—this edge becomes even more impactful. When possessions are limited, every trip down the floor carries extra weight.
The numbers paint Drake as the ultimate underdog. Their Underdog Rating is nearly double that of any team seeded 11th or lower in last year’s NCAA Tournament, making them a Cinderella contender to watch.
Utah State Aggies
Bracket projections currently place the Aggies around a No. 9 seed (with The Athletic slotting them as a No. 10), meaning their bracket-busting potential would likely come in the second round.
Fortunately, they have the firepower to challenge a top seed. Led by a dynamic backcourt duo—Ian Martinez (17 points per game) and Mason Falslev (14.6 ppg, 6.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists)—Utah State boasts the nation’s 16th-ranked offence in efficiency. They excel at scoring both inside and beyond the arc, take care of the basketball, and dominate the offensive glass with a 33.8% rebounding rate.
While their defense isn’t elite, the Aggies shine in one key area Slingshot values: forcing turnovers. They disrupt over 20% of opponents’ possessions, with a steal rate of 12.5%—29th in the nation—leading to plenty of fast-break opportunities. Their ability to generate stops was crucial in handing Saint Mary’s one of its four losses, a promising sign as they prepare for potential NCAA Tournament matchups. For people to Bet on March Madness, Utah State’s offensive efficiency and disruptive defense make them an intriguing sleeper pick capable of making a deep run.
UC San Diego Tritons
Four years after making the leap from Division II to the Big West, UC San Diego is finally eligible for the NCAA Tournament. While the prolonged transition period may have seemed excessive, head coach Eric Olen made the most of it.
By tapping into his network and recruiting talent from smaller programs nationwide—including Azusa, Hawai’i-Hilo, and Lynn—he has methodically built a contender. Since 2023, the Tritons have improved from 10 wins to 21 to 26 (and counting), ranking 53rd in basic power ratings and 35th in the NET rankings, which made the team one of the Top NCAAB Matchups to Watch whenever they are posed to fight against a big name .
Thanks to Gray’s relentless defense, the Tritons force turnovers on 23.5% of opponent possessions while committing them on 13.4% of their own—creating a historically large turnover differential. Their suffocating defense forces opponents into long, drawn-out possessions, averaging 18.3 seconds per trip (ranking 326th in pace). On offense, they embrace the modern game, launching three-pointers on nearly half of their attempts and converting at a strong 36.9% clip (41st nationally).
The bottom line? UC San Diego is a well-built team with all the traits that have fueled past Cinderella runs. Now’s the time to get familiar with them—and cheer for them in the Big West Tournament before half the bracket pool confuses them with San Diego State.
North Texas Mean Green
Four years ago, North Texas stunned Purdue in an overtime thriller as a No. 13 seed, taking down a No. 4. While former head coach Grant McCasland has since moved on to Texas Tech, Ross Hodge has maintained the Mean Green’s signature style—playing at a methodical pace, staying competitive in every game, maximizing possessions, and locking down the perimeter.
Defensively, they’re even better, holding opponents to 29.6% from beyond the arc—good for ninth in the country. Their ultra-slow tempo (60.4 possessions per game, ranking 362nd) further frustrates opponents, and they haven’t lost a game by more than five points since Thanksgiving weekend.
Samford Bulldogs
Speaking of frustrating opponents, Bucky Ball is back—though at a slightly lower volume.
The Bulldogs thrived on forcing turnovers and creating open looks, leading to a 29-6 record, a Southern Conference championship, and a narrow four-point loss to No. 4 seed Kansas in the NCAA Tournament.
However, this year has presented more challenges. The departure of big man Achor Achor to Kansas State and the loss of 5-foot-8 point guard Dallas Graziani to Division II Nova Southeastern have altered their identity. Add tougher conference competition, and Samford is the No. 4 seed in the SoCon Tournament.
Even so, the Bulldogs still wreak havoc defensively, forcing turnovers on 21.8% of opponent possessions—18th-best in the nation. Offensively, they remain committed to the deep ball, taking nearly 47% of their shots from three and hitting them at a strong 37% clip (37th nationally).
According to Slingshot, Samford’s combination of classic underdog traits makes them the SoCon’s best bet for an NCAA Tournament upset, improving their chances of beating a higher seed by more than 10 points per 100 possessions.
Final Words
March Madness is defined by its unpredictability, and 2025 is shaping to be no different. Teams like Drake, Utah State, UC San Diego, VCU, North Texas, and Samford have all demonstrated the unique qualities that make for a classic Cinderella story—whether it’s defensive tenacity, offensive efficiency, or a game-changing style of play.
These underdogs may not be household names yet, but history has shown that overlooked teams can steal the spotlight in March. As the tournament unfolds, don’t be surprised if one of these programs busts brackets and captures the hearts of basketball fans nationwide.
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