Here’s a pick-me-up for the January blues: this could well be Nigel Farage’s last year on top | Simon Jenkins

There’s no doubting the charisma of its leader, but Reform UK lacks the depth and experience needed to govern – and voters are quickly realising that

I fear for Nigel Farage. This should be his big year, the make-or-break 2026. Last year his Reform party finally began to top the polls and he was feted by Washington as the UK’s Trump and next prime minister. So how now would he turn a sheaf of poll results into a disciplined election-winning machine? Or has he for the past year merely been doing what most third parties do at this stage of a parliament, which is feast on the misfortune of their opponents?

The polls sent Reform surging into a steady lead last spring. It held that position through the summer, with a high of 29% according to YouGov, and 33% according to More in Common. But pollsters now suggest that Farage’s party may have peaked – with YouGov’s December polling showing a drop in its vote share to 26%, its lowest since April. Some of this has been credited to increasing support for the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and to the joint Lib Dem/Green vote surging to nearly 30%. It seems likely that this confusion will survive through this May’s local elections. Betting in this field is for madmen.

Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist