Although we’re still a few weeks away from the teeth of fantasy baseball season, it’s never a bad idea to start sketching some ideas in pencil. With that in mind, here’s a one-man mock draft for the first round, as we look to get those drafting muscles back in shape.
1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
2. Shohei Ohtani, UT, Dodgers
There are no wrong answers at the top of the draft, and these two guys will go one-two in most leagues. Judge is three years older, but Ohtani also carries the strain of his side pitching assignments. Both men are supported by deep lineups behind them. Ohtani’s 59 steals from two years ago proved to be an outlier; he did it for fun once, but probably now recognizes it doesn’t make sense to run that aggressively in the regular season. More than any other club in baseball, the Dodgers start each year with October health in mind.
3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
In what can fairly be termed an off year, Witt still led the majors in hits and doubles and was the seventh-most valuable hitter for 5x5 leagues. The Kansas City lineup has an upgraded feel to it, with eight of its primary starters expected to be league average or better. Witt likely hasn’t peaked yet, about to enter his age-26 season.
4. Juan Soto, OF, Mets
Announcer Keith Hernandez has said for years that any ballplayer could probably steal 15 bases or so if he merely put in the effort. Soto took it a step further, leading the National League with 38 swipes in 42 attempts, after seven full seasons of station-to-station baseball. Even if Soto’s steals take a reasonable step back, he’s a multi-category monster entering his age-27 season. The timing could be right for his first MVP year.
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5. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers
His last two seasons have been remarkably similar, although Skubal was less unlucky with wins last year. The voters didn’t seem to mind — he’s been the runaway Cy Young winner in the AL two straight seasons. Starting pitchers are the running backs of fantasy baseball — you always worry about health risks, but if you land on the right ones, you probably rule the world. The top of this position should be considered in any first round.
Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
6. José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
He keeps cranking out near-identical seasons, and he’s also taken his base stealing up a notch in his 30s. I don’t love the lineup around Ramírez, but six straight years of durability and production earns him an obvious seat at this table. Third base is also not a deep fantasy position.
7. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
The batting average has bounced around for his three full seasons, but players with this type of power-speed potential will always demand early fantasy picks. Last season was partially muted by a wrist problem; imagine what Carroll might be able to accomplish if he’s healthy in his age-25 campaign.
8. Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates
Wins can be fluky for even the greatest pitchers, which is why it’s reasonable to consider something other than wins to fill out your league structure. However you play, Skenes belongs here, sitting on a 1.96 ERA and 0.948 WHIP through 55 MLB starts. Appointment viewing.
9. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
For all the strikeouts, the average hasn’t really been a problem — his career .255 mark is more than good enough, given how he fills the other categories. And with Elly stepping into his age-24 season, we still have to view him as a player on the escalator.
10. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners
You know you’re a special ballplayer when you hit 32 homers and steal 30 bases and chart as the No. 11 overall hitter . . . and the world collectively shrugs. It would be nice if Rodríguez played in a more favorable offensive park, but you have to grab these five-category contributors while you can. Rodríguez cut his strikeout rate to a career low last year, a subtle sign of growth.
11. Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox
We’ve seen this movie before with Chris Sale, the last time the Red Sox plucked a Chicago lefty ace in his prime and reaped instant benefits. Crochet’s first Boston season was much more effective on the road (2.25 ERA, versus 3.02 at Fenway), but his power arsenal is capable of dominating anywhere. If Skubal gets tired of winning Cy Young Awards, Crochet is a logical next pick, readying for his age-27 season.
12. Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers
Fantasy baseball sages Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf will remind us that it’s somewhat risky to pay up for a fantasy baseball pick who’s starting a big contract and on a new team. It’s also been frustrating to see Tucker navigate injuries the last two years. On the plus side, Tucker is still just 29 and he’s now insulated by the Los Angeles lineup, one of the deepest in baseball. And given the star-power in L.A. and the reasonable expectation that the Dodgers are already in the playoffs, it’s not like Tucker arrives in camp with absurd pressure on his shoulders. He’ll be a first-round pick in some leagues and an early-second round pick in others.
Others Considered: Ronald Acuña Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr.
