US President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies have produced a sharp slowdown in net migration that looks set to continue in 2026, a new study says.
The number of immigrants who left the United States in 2025 very likely exceeded the number who entered, the Brookings Institution report said, warning of negative implications for the economy.
“Net migration was likely close to zero or negative over calendar year 2025 for the first time in at least half a century,” said the report, published Tuesday.
The trend is likely to continue in 2026, the authors predict, adding: “the slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth.”
Net migration to the United States in 2025 is expected to be between -10,000 and -295,000, the study said.
It noted that growth in the US-born working-age population has been weak in recent years, with almost all growth in the labor force stemming from immigration.
In addition to providing labor, immigrants generate demand for goods and services, the study said, warning that a negative migration balance will have “important implications for the macroeconomy.”
The study authors offered a caveat for their forecasts, saying that “recent reductions in data transparency make the estimates more uncertain.”
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