China’s slowing overseas investment reflects caution, not retreat

China’s latest outbound investment numbers look underwhelming at first glance. At the commerce ministry’s recently concluded national conference on outbound investment and foreign aid, officials revealed that outward direct investment grew by just 1.3 per cent in 2025, a sharp slowdown from the double-digit pace seen in 2024 and 2023. On paper, it appeared to confirm a cooling of China’s overseas expansion. That conclusion misses what is actually changing. The more important story is not the...