Biggest Pakistan–India escalation: 2025

Islamabad: The year 2025 witnessed the most significant military escalation between India and Pakistan in decades. This conflict challenged both the internal and external foundations of cash-strapped Pakistan, leaving the state at a critical crossroads.In the summer of 2025, India launched coordinated missile strikes, codenamed "Operation Sindoor", to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and its occupied part of Kashmir in response to the Pahalgam terror attack in which 26 people were killed.Modern weapons, including drones, missiles and other equipment, were put into operation, alarming the world that the crisis could spiral out of control into a full-blown war.Hours after the strikes in the wee hours of May 7, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said the action was taken after intelligence reports showed that "further attacks against India were impending"."Therefore, it was necessary to take preemptive and precautionary strikes," he said.At least a dozen Pakistani military aircraft, including US-origin F-16 jets, were destroyed or damaged in Indian strikes, according to India's Air Chief Marshal A P Singh.The intense clashes between the two countries ended with an understanding to halt the military actions after four days on May 10.Pakistan employed Chinese hardware during the conflict, highlighting its dependence on Beijing's defence technology. Apart from China, Pakistan got steady support from Turkey and Azerbaijan.Though the conflict was managed, it shattered long-standing assumptions about nuclear deterrence, proving that conventional "surgical" strikes could occur without escalating into full-scale war.President Donald Trump invited Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, who was later elevated to the rank of Field Marshal, to the White House for dinner. Munir was successful in casting a charm on Trump, and the latter spent the next several months parroting that some "beautiful jets" were destroyed in the conflict and claiming that he helped end the conflict. Trump never identified whose jets were damaged.India has been consistently maintaining that the understanding on cessation of hostilities with Pakistan was reached following direct talks between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two militaries.Next came the defence deal with Saudi Arabia. The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed in September 2025 formalised the long-standing security cooperation between the two countries."The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," according to the Joint Statement issued after the two countries inked the agreement.India has steadily worked to build ties with Riyadh for energy, trade, and diplomatic support, and would closely monitor any such security arrangement.Pakistan's diplomatic outreach increased after the May clash, and it was among the Muslim countries invited by President Trump for consultation on the situation in Gaza. It is also expected to contribute troops for the international stabilisation force in Gaza."Critics have acknowledged Pakistan's calibrated military posture, which was neither provocative nor passive, and helped avert a wider escalation. The display of restraint enhanced Islamabad's credibility among global powers," defence analyst Zia Khan said.In October, border clashes erupted between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with Islamabad claiming that at least 206 Afghan Taliban and 110 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operatives were killed, while 23 Pakistani soldiers died.The two countries held multiple rounds of talks to defuse tensions, without much success. Towards the end of the year, the two countries appeared to be making a renewed but cautious push to overcome their deep-seated differences over the banned TTP.While the borders simmered, the domestic political landscape remained a tinderbox, centred on landmark changes in the Army law and the incarceration of the most popular political figure, Imran Khan.In a move that signalled total military dominance over civilian administration, the Pakistani military underwent a historic internal transformation to centralise command and project a "unified front".Army Chief Munir was elevated to the rank of Field Marshal, a title not seen in Pakistan for decades. He was appointed as the first Chief of Defence Forces. The opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, led by Imran Khan, claims that the move was aimed at reinforcing the "Asim Law," which governs Pakistan.In December, a special court sentenced Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, to 17 years in prison in the Toshakhana-II corruption case. The sentencing sparked immediate unrest, with thousands of PTI supporters clashing with security forces in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, further deepening the rift between the populace and the establishment.From Adiala Jail, Khan labelled the trial a "military-style" sham and called for a nationwide "Haqeeqi Azadi" (True Freedom) movement.In December, a military court sentenced former ISI chief retired Lt Gen Faiz Hameed to 14 years in prison, more than a year after court-martial proceedings began against him on multiple charges, including engaging in political activities and violating the Official Secrets Act.Hameed was widely known to be a close associate of Imran Khan.Pakistan continues to reel under terrorism with a surge of 25 per cent terror incidents in 2025 compared to the previous year, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa being the worst hit province.In October, Islamabad-based think tank Centre for Research and Security Studies said that violence had surged in the country over three months due to a spike in militant attacks and intensified counter-terrorism operations.On the economic front, the latest Internatio-nal Monetary Fund (IMF) projections suggest that Pakistan's economy has regained short-term stability, but it remains burdened by high debt, weak investment and slow employment growth.Projections by the IMF, released earlier in December alongside the statement announcing a fresh disbursement of around USD 1.2 billion to Pakistan, showed that the country's economic growth was projected to inch up from 2.6 per cent in FY-25 to 3.2 per cent by FY-26, a pace that barely matches population growth in the country of 240.5 million people.As 2025 ends, Pakistan's major challenges remain terrorism, strained ties with neighbours and internal political issues.