Asset manager Aberdeen trims Venezuela bonds after stunning rally

Asset manager Aberdeen Investments is "trimming" its holdings of Venezuela's sovereign bonds, a portfolio ⁠manager told Reuters, after a stunning rally that has more than doubled the price of the country's defaulted bonds in the past 12 months. "The tail risk ‌seems pretty ‌high," Kevin Daly, a portfolio manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, told Reuters. "We're trimming it back a ‌little bit. I think it's prudent to reduce a bit of risk here." The defaulted debt instruments gained as much 10 cents on Monday, the first trading day after the U.S. seized President Nicolas Maduro in a weekend operation. Those gains added to returns of nearly 100% last year, fuelled by investor hopes that U.S. ‌President Donald ‍Trump's return to the White House could prompt regime ‍change that could kickstart a long-awaited debt restructuring. Data from ‌MarketAxess shows that trading of Venezuela bonds - and those of state oil company PDVSA - on January 5 and 6 soared by 1,174% from its 2025 daily average on its platform. On Friday, the bonds were gaining again, with the 2031 maturity adding 1.2 cents to bid at 42.59 cents on the ‍dollar. Broadly, the government debt is trading between 35 and 43 cents. Despite Maduro's removal, debt restructuring remains daunting; Venezuela ‍and its ⁠top officials remain ⁠under U.S. sanctions, so even talking to officials is barred without a waiver or license from the U.S. Treasury. And even once talks begin, unraveling the estimated $150-170 million debt pile - which comprises bonds, arbitration claims, bilateral loans and legal battles over previous government appropriations - is daunting. "It's unlikely for further rally until investors anticipate or become more optimistic on the prospect for a breakthrough on licensing," Daly said.