FG targets 25% manufacturing GDP share in 5 years

…Amid 3-decade decline 

*Current contribution below 9%

By Yinka Kolawole

The federal government has set a target of manufacturing contribution to Nigeria’s economy at between 20 percent and 25 percent by 2030 with the imminent launch of the Nigerian Industrial Policy.

This is even as available data indicate that the sector has a long way to go despite expectations of modest improvement in the near term.

Manufacturing’s share of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which stood at over 20 per cent in the early 1990s, has steadily declined over the past three decades to less than 9 per cent in 2024, underscoring deep-seated structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s industrial base.

Average manufacturing contribution to GDP in the first 9 months in 2025 was 8.35%.

Historical data revealed that the sector contributed 20.3 per cent to GDP in 1992.  

However, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the sector’s contribution has largely stagnated within the 8–9 per cent band in recent years.  

Manufacturing accounted for 9.20 per cent of GDP in 2018, 9.06 per cent in 2019, 8.99 per cent in 2020, 8.98 per cent in 2021, and 8.92 per cent in 2022. In 2023, the sector averaged about 9.0 per cent, while preliminary data for 2024 place it within a narrow 9–10 per cent range.

Announcing the government’s ambitious manufacturing target, recently, at the soft launch of the Nigerian Industrial Policy, Minister of State for Industry, John Enoh, said it aims to strengthen local production, promote backward integration, improve access to affordable financing, and foster linkages between small and large enterprises.

According to him, the government is committed to creating an enabling environment that will allow the sector to expand and compete.

His words: “Our goal is to reposition manufacturing as a major driver of economic growth, job creation, and export expansion, and raise the sector’s contribution to Nigeria’s GDP to between 20% and 25% by 2030. It is achievable if we continue to implement reforms that improve power supply, access to finance, and industrial infrastructure.

“The Nigerian Industrial Policy outlines practical steps to improve power supply, access to finance, and industrial infrastructure — all critical to reaching a 20 to 25 percent contribution to GDP by 2030.”

Meanwhile, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has projected that manufacturing will account for about 10.2 per cent of real GDP in 2026.

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