Russia far from victory in Ukraine – UK

A Russian victory in Ukraine is far from inevitable, the United Kingdom said on Thursday at a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Ankur Narayan, UK Delegation’s Counsellor for Politico-Military Affairs, stated that Russia’s war continues to impose extreme human losses on its own armed forces.

Britain estimates Russia suffered around 420,000 casualties to gain 0.8 percent of Ukrainian territory in 2025, and a total of 1.2 million personnel since the invasion started in February 2022.

Narayan said the troops and people “are paying the price for the Kremlin’s decisions,” accusing President Vladimir Putin of choosing to sustain the war at the expense of his people’s welfare.

The official told the OSCE that despite allocating 38 percent of the 2026 budget to defence and security, Moscow has raised VAT and cut funds for social spending and economic support to a 20-year low.

The UK figures show that Russian oil and gas revenues fell 24% in 2025, while military salaries hit $50 billion in 2025, more than 10 percent of government expenditure.

Noting that the 2025 fiscal deficit exceeded $72 billion, fivefold more than the forecast, Narayan cited the Finance Ministry’s comment on planned domestic borrowing of $70.7 billion in 2026.

Britain also said that due to recruitment challenges, Russia recently relaxed medical standards to allow individuals with serious health conditions to join the operation in Ukraine.

The low enlistment has been linked to Russia’s increasing reliance on foreign fighters, including the many thousands mobilized in addition to 11,000 North Korean troops.

The UK observed that Russia’s lack of reserves made it move forces from guarded sectors, a vulnerability Ukraine “successfully exploited” with counterattacks near Kupiansk and Dobrophilia in late 2025.

“A Russian victory is far from inevitable. We (European partners) will support Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Narayan vowed, highlighting Europe’s €40 billion military aid last year.

The UK government again declared that Russia’s war violates international law, contravenes the OSCE principles, and remains “inconsistent with the interests of its own people.”

Russia far from victory in Ukraine – UK