*Urges discipline as political cycle approaches
*Projects 5.5% growth as consolidation phase begins
*Seeks single-digit inflation, $50bn reserves
By Babajide Komolafe
ABUJA — The Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG, yesterday warned that the 2027 general elections could pose the biggest threat yet to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, cautioning that reform fatigue and policy reversals often set in as political cycles approach.
Speaking at the presentation of the NESG 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, NESG Chief Economist, Dr. Omishakin, said many countries that recorded early gains after stabilisation later lost them due to weak consolidation, particularly during election periods.
“Election cycles are usually the most difficult moments for reforms,” Omishakin said. “What we have seen across several countries is that once the immediate crisis passes, governments tend to relax. When elections approach, discipline weakens, policies become inconsistent and the gains begin to reverse.”
According to him, Nigeria is currently in a critical consolidation phase following the stabilisation reforms implemented between 2023 and 2025, making 2026 a decisive year for locking in progress ahead of the 2027 polls.
“We are no longer in crisis, and that is exactly why this moment is risky,” he said. “Countries often relapse after stabilisation because they underestimate the importance of consolidation. If we get distracted by short-term political considerations in 2027, we may not sustain what we have achieved.”
Omishakin noted that Nigeria’s current real GDP growth of about 3.8 per cent remains below the 5.5 to 6 per cent required for meaningful economic transformation, warning that failure to deepen reforms could push growth back to the 2 to 3 per cent range experienced in previous years.
“Our projection for 2026 is about 5.5 per cent growth, but this is conditional,” he said. “It depends entirely on whether reforms are sustained through the political cycle. Without discipline, the economy could easily slide back.”
He stressed that anchoring reforms ahead of the elections would require firm commitment to macroeconomic discipline, including a clear path to single-digit inflation, sustained exchange rate stability and foreign reserves of about $50 billion.
“Single-digit inflation is not just a number,” Omishakin said. “It is a signal that consolidation is real and durable. It shows that the economy has moved beyond crisis management to long-term stability.”
On the sectoral front, he warned that weak performance in agriculture and manufacturing could undermine reform outcomes if not urgently addressed.
“Manufacturing is currently growing at about 1.5 per cent, agriculture at around 2 per cent. These numbers are not consistent with consolidation,” he said. “You cannot sustain reforms without jobs, without productivity, and without inclusion. Election pressures make this even more challenging.”
He added that the period between stabilisation and elections represents what NESG describes as a “critical window”, during which reforms must be institutionalised to withstand political pressure.
“If reforms are not embedded in strong institutions before elections, they become vulnerable,” Omishakin said. “That is why 2026 is so important. It is the year to deepen reforms, not slow them down.”
Earlier, NESG Chairman, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, also urged policymakers to resist the temptation of short-term populist measures as political activities gather momentum.
“Stabilisation is only the first step,” Yusuf said. “The real work is consolidation, and that work must continue even as we approach the 2027 elections.”
Both speakers called on the private sector to remain engaged and hold government accountable for reform implementation, while urging development partners to continue supporting Nigeria’s reform agenda.
They expressed optimism that with sustained discipline, Nigeria could weather the political cycle without losing reform momentum and lay a strong foundation for accelerated growth beyond 2026.
“The real test of reform is not during crisis,” Omishakin said. “It is during elections. How we manage the 2027 cycle will determine whether these reforms endure or unravel.”
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